The climate of Assam is poised for significant changes by 2040, a shift that could severely impact the state’s economy, ecosystems and public health.

This projection comes from the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, which has released an open-access climate data set for India, including detailed projections for Assam.

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The forecast is based on the medium-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 scenario, a global climate model used to assess the impacts of moderate carbon emissions.

According to this model, several districts in Assam will experience notable climate variations, with rising temperatures and declining rainfall over the next 15 to 20 years.

Faculty member Professor Santonu Goswami, while addressing the media, emphasised the importance of public engagement in climate discourse.

“For the first time in India, we released climate data projections quite openly, making them freely available to the public. Anyone can directly download the data for any district in India. We are interested in the scenario in the Northeast. That is why we have decided to come here and introduce the dataset to everyone,” Goswami stated.

One of the most alarming findings is the projected increase in wet-bulb temperature, a measure of combined heat and humidity that determines how the human body cools itself.

Districts like Majuli and Jorhat are expected to see wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 31 degrees Celsius, posing serious health risks, especially during heat waves. Additionally, Nagaon district is expected to witness an annual wet-bulb temperature rise of 1.95 degrees Celsius, indicating heightened risks of heat-related illnesses and fatalities.

Assam’s rain-fed agriculture is also expected to face disruptions. Several districts will likely receive reduced rainfall, exacerbating water shortages and making irrigation more challenging. Variations in rainfall patterns could lead to erratic agricultural cycles, significantly affecting crop yields and food security.

High wet-bulb temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are not just theoretical concerns; they carry real-world consequences. Prolonged dry spells will strain water resources, impacting drinking water supply and sanitation. Increased humidity combined with high temperatures could also lead to a rise in vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue.

For Assam’s agrarian economy, these climatic changes threaten livelihoods. With 70 per cent of the population dependent on agriculture, shifts in rainfall intensity and prolonged heat waves could disrupt planting cycles, reduce productivity and force farmers to adapt to new, potentially costlier irrigation techniques.

Experts stress the need for immediate policy interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change in Assam. Strengthening disaster management frameworks, improving irrigation systems, and promoting climate-resilient crop varieties are some strategies that can help reduce vulnerabilities.

Goswami emphasised the role of data in shaping climate resilience strategies: “Climate change has to be part of day-to-day conversation. We are collating the data, and I hope that our data will be useful to state departments like disaster management. We are quite open to discussions on this.”

As Assam grapples with these climatic challenges, proactive planning, investment in sustainable infrastructure and increased public awareness will be crucial in mitigating the worst effects of the impending climate crisis. With less than two decades before these changes fully take hold, Assam must act now to secure a sustainable future.

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